Energy challenges and greenhouse gases

Growing needs will have climate change impacts

Global energy needs are set to increase under the combined pressures of population growth, greater access to energy and the resurgence of economic growth.

According to the World Energy Outlook report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in November 2008, global primary energy use will grow from 12 Gtoe (metric gigatons oil equivalent) in 2007 to 17 Gtoe in 2030, for average annual growth of 1.5%.

The IEA’s baseline scenario, which uses an energy production mix that includes 80% fossil fuels, estimates that CO₂ emissions will grow nearly 50% between 2007 and 2030. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this increase could result in a 6°C rise in temperature by the end of the century.

Average CO2 emissions by electrics generating Systems

Range of analysis takes into account differences in assessment methods, thermal efficiency, scope, etc.

Source: IAEA "Nuclear Power and Sustainable Development" D. Weisser, May, 2007

The fight against climate change goes global

Measures have already been taken at an international level to address the challenge of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol* requires signatories (industrialized countries) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.

Nonetheless, the fight against climate change requires further action to reach the targets recommended by IPCC scientists. Limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C will require halting growth in greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 and then reducing them to 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.

Europe has set a reduction target of 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 as part of the “energy-climate package” and, in January 2005, established a cap and trade system for CO₂ emissions (European Trading System) which puts a market value on emission reductions.

The United States’ American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES), which the Senate will vote on in early 2010, sets greenhouse gas reduction targets of 17% by 2020, 42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050, and would establish a cap and trade mechanism.

Developing countries are also playing a critical role in the fight against climate change. Recent commitments to pursue less fossil fuel-intensive growth underlines their awareness of the risks associated with continued growth in emissions.

As the primary human source of greenhouse gas emissions, the energy sector has a major role to play in reaching these ambitious targets, and not necessarily through solutions involving CO₂-free energy production.

* An international treaty signed in 1999 that entered into effect in 2005.

Anticipating the depletion of fossil fuel resources

Given the uncertainty regarding the precise “peak” date and the current level of hydrocarbon resources available, it makes sense to imagine a “post-oil” world to ensure countries’ energy independence and avoid subjecting people to the inevitable rise and volatility of oil and gas prices in the event of strong demand.

Global oil and gas production

A global environment in favor of CO2-free energy

The challenges of climate change and fossil fuel depletion are closely linked. We must work as quickly as possible to identify alternatives to burning fossil fuels—solutions that have low CO₂ emissions and that contribute to a sustainable energy mix.

AREVA is helping to address these challenges with its nuclear, bioenergy, wind-based and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) solutions.