The challenge: to increase power generation while limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

Growing energy demand

Fueled by economic growth and increased use of electricity, world power consumption is set to increase steadily over the long term.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects world primary energy consumption to increase by 60% during the 2002-2030 time period. Developing countries would account for two-thirds of new requirements and fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) would meet close to 70% of the demand for energy.

Among primary energy sources, demand for electricity should increase most rapidly, at some 2.5% annually.

Factors that could impact these assumptions include population growth, the availability of fossil fuels, and government policies on energy conservation, nuclear power and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Triggering price and access issues

Prices for fossil fuel (coal, oil and natural gas) have risen sharply over the last four years. Over the 2002-2006, the strong growth of the world economy, especially in China and the United States, combined with geopolitical tensions in the oil-producing countries helped boost the prices of these resources considerably. Prices were up 110% for coal, 170% for oil and 130% for natural gas in Europe, while in the United States natural gas rose by 250%. These increases pushed up electricity prices. In the European Union, for example, annual forward prices for baseload electricity doubled from €25/MWh in early 2003 to more than €50/MWh by the end of 2006.

With significant consequences on climate change for the energy mix considered by the IEA

The strong growth in energy requirements, and therefore in power generation, is expected to have serious consequences in terms of climate change. Based on the energy mix considered by the IEA, CO₂ emissions would increase by more than 50% over the 2001-2030 time frame. This is one of the main causes of climate change, which could trigger a temperature increase of 2 to 4°C by the end of the century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (see the chart below).

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature from 1800 to 2100

 
Source: IPCC / Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
* SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are being taken at the international level

The IPCC's third report mentions nuclear energy as one of the avenues to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The 2007 report of the US Global Energy Technology and Strategy Program (GTSP) estimates that the global cost of stabilizing the climate could be reduced by 50% by using nuclear energy compared with a program that does not use nuclear energy, for total savings of 2 trillion US dollars.
The issue of whether or not to use nuclear power is becoming particularly crucial for Europe, which has set an emissions reduction target of 20% by 2020 in relation to 1990. Irrespective of the political positions taken, the European Trading System created in January 2005 to cap CO2 emissions has put a market value on emissions reduction. The price of post-2008 emissions jumped above 20 euros per metric ton of CO2 when more restrictive quotas were announced.  

CO₂ emissions by energy system (g/kWh)


Source: AREVA based on the World Energy Council report of July 2004/"Comparison of energy systems Using Life Cycle Analysis".

According to the “Climate Change” brochure published by Foratom in 2005, the world’s nuclear power plants avoid the production of 2.2 billion MT of CO₂ each year, i.e. 7.7% of the world’s annual emissions, which were estimated at 26.1 billion MT in 2004, according to the International Monetary Fund’s publication 2006 World Economic Outlook. All European Union countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Their greenhouse gas reduction objective for the 2008-2012 period is 0.4 billion MT below 1990 levels. This can be compared with the CO₂ emissions avoided by nuclear power in the European Union of approximately 0.7 billion MT of CO₂ per year. Nuclear power plants avoided CO₂ emissions in the United States as well, in the amount of 0.7 billion MT.

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Download presentation: CO2 emissions: the reduction challenge - The nuclear alternative. 

Useful links

www.unep.org: United Nations Environment Program.
http://unfccc.int: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - Kyoto Protocol and conventions.
http://www.ipcc.ch: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This site provides scientific, technical and socio-economic information for an understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and the various mitigation measures available.
www.iea.org: International Energy Agency.
http://europa.eu.int: European Commission.